Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
